2022-05-31 18:56, neratoblogo rašė:
> Dėl to 10-20-30 p.p. niekas nedarys, galvos neguldyčiau.
> T.y. šansų tikrai mažai, bet nesenoje istorijoje jau yra buvę.
> > Kai USA ~1975-1980 metais infliacija makalavosi nuo 7 iki 15 procentų, > tai FED rate'as berods 1980-81-aisias buvo pasiekęs 20 procentų.
> > Infliacijos priežastys buvo panašios, kaip ir dabar: buvo eilinė > energetikos krizė (arabų šalys užkėlė naftos kainas), Vietnamo karas, > dominavo Keynsistinė pinigų politika (taip pat kaip ir dabar - daug > pigių pinigų).
> > Istorija kartojasi. Tai nors ir nenorėčiau to patirti, bet per daug > nenustebčiau, jei dar metus-kitus infliacija liks tokia pati - pamatysim > ir 10-20 procentų palūkanas.

Atmetus emocijas - bent kol kas niekas jokių dramų neplanuoja:

What we see today is that it is appropriate to move out of negative rates by the end of the third quarter, and that the process should be gradual. Normalisation has a natural focus on moving in units of 25 basis points, so increases of 25 basis points in the July and September meetings are a benchmark pace (...)

The discussion will be had, but our current assessment of the situation, where we think the medium-term inflation outlook is in line with our two per cent target, calls for a gradual approach to normalisation (...)

we are moving towards a normalisation of monetary policies that were introduced to fight excessively-low inflation. It is more a withdrawal of stimulus than a monetary tightening. Monetary policy is still going to be supportive. Moving out of negative rates in September does not mean that interest rates are going to be high – these are still going to be relatively supportive. It’s a pathway to normalisation (...)

 for us as a central bank the important focus is on a pathway where essentially we will be moving rates and then we’ll be simultaneously assessing the inflation dynamic. Rates will settle down when inflation settles around two per cent, and we should be open-minded where that will be. We’re going meeting by meeting, quarter by quarter (...

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/inter/date/2022/html/ecb.in220530~bc5cf9621c.en.html